Population immunity predicts evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2.

The large-scale evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been marked by rapid turnover of genetic clades. New variants show intrinsic changes, notably increased transmissibility, and antigenic changes that reduce cross-immunity induced by previous infections or vaccinations. How this functional variation shapes global evolution has remained unclear. Here, we establish a predictive fitness model for SARS-CoV-2 that integrates antigenic and intrinsic selection. The model is informed by tracking of time-resolved sequence data, epidemiological records, and cross-neutralization data of viral variants. Our inference shows that immune pressure, including contributions of vaccinations and previous infections, has become the dominant force driving the recent evolution of SARS-CoV-2. The fitness model can serve continued surveillance in two ways. First, it successfully predicts the short-term evolution of circulating strains and flags emerging variants likely to displace the previously predominant variant. Second, it predicts likely antigenic profiles of successful escape variants prior to their emergence.

Steering and controlling evolution - from bioengineering to fighting pathogens.

Control interventions steer the evolution of molecules, viruses, microorganisms or other cells towards a desired outcome. Applications range from engineering biomolecules and synthetic organisms to drug, therapy and vaccine design against pathogens and cancer. In all these instances, a control system alters the eco-evolutionary trajectory of a target system, inducing new functions or suppressing escape evolution. Here, we synthesize the objectives, mechanisms and dynamics of eco-evolutionary control in different biological systems. We discuss how the control system learns and processes information about the target system by sensing or measuring, through adaptive evolution or computational prediction of future trajectories. This information flow distinguishes pre-emptive control strategies by humans from feedback control in biotic systems. We establish a cost-benefit calculus to gauge and optimize control protocols, highlighting the fundamental link between predictability of evolution and efficacy of pre-emptive control.

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges.

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Discovery of ultrapotent broadly neutralizing antibodies from SARS-CoV-2 elite neutralizers.

A fraction of COVID-19 convalescent individuals mount a potent antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 with cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-1. To uncover their humoral response in detail, we performed single B cell analysis from 10 SARS-CoV-2 elite neutralizers. We isolated and analyzed 126 monoclonal antibodies, many of which were sarbecovirus cross-reactive, with some displaying merbecovirus- and embecovirus-reactivity. Several isolated broadly neutralizing antibodies were effective against B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.429, B.1.617, and B.1.617.2 variants and 19 prominent potential escape sites. Furthermore, assembly of 716,806 SARS-CoV-2 sequences predicted emerging escape variants, which were also effectively neutralized. One of these broadly neutralizing potent antibodies, R40-1G8, is a IGHV3-53 RBD-class-1 antibody. Remarkably, cryo-EM analysis revealed that R40-1G8 has a flexible binding mode, targeting both "up" and "down" conformations of the RBD. Given the threat of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, we demonstrate that elite neutralizers are a valuable source for isolating ultrapotent antibody candidates to prevent and treat SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Clinical and Genomic Characterization of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) Infections in mRNA Vaccinated Health Care Personnel in New York City.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine-induced clinical protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) variants is an evolving target. There are limited genomic level data on SARS CoV-2 breakthrough infections and vaccine effectiveness (VE) since the global spread of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. METHODS: In a retrospective study from 1 November 2020 to 31 August 2021, divided as pre-Delta and Delta-dominant periods, laboratory-confirmed SARS CoV-2 infections among healthcare personnel (HCP) at a large tertiary cancer center in New York City were examined to compare the weekly infection rate-ratio in vaccinated, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated HCP. We describe the clinical and genomic epidemiologic features of post-vaccine infections to assess for selection of variants of concern (VOC)/variants of interest (VOI) in the early post-vaccine period and impact of B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant domination on VE. RESULTS: Among 13658 HCP in our cohort, 12379 received at least 1 dose of a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine. In the pre-Delta period overall VE was 94.5%. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) of 369 isolates in the pre-Delta period did not reveal a clade bias for VOC/VOI specific to post-vaccine infections. VE in the Delta dominant phase was 75.6%. No hospitalizations occurred among vaccinated HCP in the entire study period, compared to 17 hospitalizations and 1 death among unvaccinated HCP. CONCLUSIONS: Findings show high VE among HCP in New York City in the pre-Delta phase, with moderate decline in VE post-Delta emergence. SARS CoV-2 clades were similarly distributed among vaccinated and unvaccinated infected HCP without apparent clustering during the pre-Delta period of diverse clade circulation. Strong vaccine protection against hospitalization was maintained through the entire study period.

Predicting in vivo escape dynamics of HIV-1 from a broadly neutralizing antibody.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies are promising candidates for treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infections. Such antibodies can temporarily suppress viral load in infected individuals; however, the virus often rebounds by escape mutants that have evolved resistance. In this paper, we map a fitness model of HIV-1 interacting with broadly neutralizing antibodies using in vivo data from a recent clinical trial. We identify two fitness factors, antibody dosage and viral load, that determine viral reproduction rates reproducibly across different hosts. The model successfully predicts the escape dynamics of HIV-1 in the course of an antibody treatment, including a characteristic frequency turnover between sensitive and resistant strains. This turnover is governed by a dosage-dependent fitness ranking, resulting from an evolutionary trade-off between antibody resistance and its collateral cost in drug-free growth. Our analysis suggests resistance-cost trade-off curves as a measure of antibody performance in the presence of resistance evolution.

Antigenic waves of virus-immune coevolution.

The evolution of many microbes and pathogens, including circulating viruses such as seasonal influenza, is driven by immune pressure from the host population. In turn, the immune systems of infected populations get updated, chasing viruses even farther away. Quantitatively understanding how these dynamics result in observed patterns of rapid pathogen and immune adaptation is instrumental to epidemiological and evolutionary forecasting. Here we present a mathematical theory of coevolution between immune systems and viruses in a finite-dimensional antigenic space, which describes the cross-reactivity of viral strains and immune systems primed by previous infections. We show the emergence of an antigenic wave that is pushed forward and canalized by cross-reactivity. We obtain analytical results for shape, speed, and angular diffusion of the wave. In particular, we show that viral-immune coevolution generates an emergent timescale, the persistence time of the wave's direction in antigenic space, which can be much longer than the coalescence time of the viral population. We compare these dynamics to the observed antigenic turnover of influenza strains, and we discuss how the dimensionality of antigenic space impacts the predictability of the evolutionary dynamics. Our results provide a concrete and tractable framework to describe pathogen-host coevolution.

Metabolic fitness landscapes predict the evolution of antibiotic resistance.

Bacteria evolve resistance to antibiotics by a multitude of mechanisms. A central, yet unsolved question is how resistance evolution affects cell growth at different drug levels. Here, we develop a fitness model that predicts growth rates of common resistance mutants from their effects on cell metabolism. The model maps metabolic effects of resistance mutations in drug-free environments and under drug challenge; the resulting fitness trade-off defines a Pareto surface of resistance evolution. We predict evolutionary trajectories of growth rates and resistance levels, which characterize Pareto resistance mutations emerging at different drug dosages. We also predict the prevalent resistance mechanism depending on drug and nutrient levels: low-dosage drug defence is mounted by regulation, evolution of distinct metabolic sectors sets in at successive threshold dosages. Evolutionary resistance mechanisms include membrane permeability changes and drug target mutations. These predictions are confirmed by empirical growth inhibition curves and genomic data of Escherichia coli populations. Our results show that resistance evolution, by coupling major metabolic pathways, is strongly intertwined with systems biology and ecology of microbial populations.

Adaptive evolution of hybrid bacteria by horizontal gene transfer.

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is an important factor in bacterial evolution that can act across species boundaries. Yet, we know little about rate and genomic targets of cross-lineage gene transfer and about its effects on the recipient organism's physiology and fitness. Here, we address these questions in a parallel evolution experiment with two Bacillus subtilis lineages of 7% sequence divergence. We observe rapid evolution of hybrid organisms: gene transfer swaps ∼12% of the core genome in just 200 generations, and 60% of core genes are replaced in at least one population. By genomics, transcriptomics, fitness assays, and statistical modeling, we show that transfer generates adaptive evolution and functional alterations in hybrids. Specifically, our experiments reveal a strong, repeatable fitness increase of evolved populations in the stationary growth phase. By genomic analysis of the transfer statistics across replicate populations, we infer that selection on HGT has a broad genetic basis: 40% of the observed transfers are adaptive. At the level of functional gene networks, we find signatures of negative, positive, and epistatic selection, consistent with hybrid incompatibilities and adaptive evolution of network functions. Our results suggest that gene transfer navigates a complex cross-lineage fitness landscape, bridging epistatic barriers along multiple high-fitness paths.

Eco-evolutionary control of pathogens.

Control can alter the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a target pathogen in two ways, by changing its population size and by directed evolution of new functions. Here, we develop a payoff model of eco-evolutionary control based on strategies of evolution, regulation, and computational forecasting. We apply this model to pathogen control by molecular antibody-antigen binding with a tunable dosage of antibodies. By analytical solution, we obtain optimal dosage protocols and establish a phase diagram with an error threshold delineating parameter regimes of successful and compromised control. The solution identifies few independently measurable fitness parameters that predict the outcome of control. Our analysis shows how optimal control strategies depend on mutation rate and population size of the pathogen, and how monitoring and computational forecasting affect protocols and efficiency of control. We argue that these results carry over to more general systems and are elements of an emerging eco-evolutionary control theory.

Multi-Lineage Evolution in Viral Populations Driven by Host Immune Systems.

Viruses evolve in the background of host immune systems that exert selective pressure and drive viral evolutionary trajectories. This interaction leads to different evolutionary patterns in antigenic space. Examples observed in nature include the effectively one-dimensional escape characteristic of influenza A and the prolonged coexistence of lineages in influenza B. Here, we use an evolutionary model for viruses in the presence of immune host systems with finite memory to obtain a phase diagram of evolutionary patterns in a two-dimensional antigenic space. We find that, for small effective mutation rates and mutation jump ranges, a single lineage is the only stable solution. Large effective mutation rates combined with large mutational jumps in antigenic space lead to multiple stably co-existing lineages over prolonged evolutionary periods. These results combined with observations from data constrain the parameter regimes for the adaptation of viruses, including influenza.

Horizontal gene transfer overrides mutation in Escherichia coli colonizing the mammalian gut.

Bacteria evolve by mutation accumulation in laboratory experiments, but tempo and mode of evolution in natural environments are largely unknown. Here, we study the ubiquitous natural process of host colonization by commensal bacteria. We show, by experimental evolution of Escherichia coli in the mouse intestine, that the ecology of the gut controls the pace and mode of evolution of a new invading bacterial strain. If a resident E. coli strain is present in the gut, the invading strain evolves by rapid horizontal gene transfer (HGT), which precedes and outweighs evolution by accumulation of mutations. HGT is driven by 2 bacteriophages carried by the resident strain, which cause an epidemic phage infection of the invader. These dynamics are followed by subsequent evolution by clonal interference of genetically diverse lineages of phage-carrying (lysogenic) bacteria. We show that the genes uptaken by HGT enhance the metabolism of specific gut carbon sources and provide a fitness advantage to lysogenic invader lineages. A minimal dynamical model explains the temporal pattern of phage epidemics and the complex evolutionary outcome of phage-mediated selection. We conclude that phage-driven HGT is a key eco-evolutionary driving force of gut colonization-it accelerates evolution and promotes genetic diversity of commensal bacteria.

Survival of the simplest in microbial evolution.

The evolution of microbial and viral organisms often generates clonal interference, a mode of competition between genetic clades within a population. Here we show how interference impacts systems biology by constraining genetic and phenotypic complexity. Our analysis uses biophysically grounded evolutionary models for molecular phenotypes, such as fold stability and enzymatic activity of genes. We find a generic mode of phenotypic interference that couples the function of individual genes and the population's global evolutionary dynamics. Biological implications of phenotypic interference include rapid collateral system degradation in adaptation experiments and long-term selection against genome complexity: each additional gene carries a cost proportional to the total number of genes. Recombination above a threshold rate can eliminate this cost, which establishes a universal, biophysically grounded scenario for the evolution of sex. In a broader context, our analysis suggests that the systems biology of microbes is strongly intertwined with their mode of evolution.

Gene expression variability across cells and species shapes innate immunity.

As the first line of defence against pathogens, cells mount an innate immune response, which varies widely from cell to cell. The response must be potent but carefully controlled to avoid self-damage. How these constraints have shaped the evolution of innate immunity remains poorly understood. Here we characterize the innate immune response's transcriptional divergence between species and variability in expression among cells. Using bulk and single-cell transcriptomics in fibroblasts and mononuclear phagocytes from different species, challenged with immune stimuli, we map the architecture of the innate immune response. Transcriptionally diverging genes, including those that encode cytokines and chemokines, vary across cells and have distinct promoter structures. Conversely, genes that are involved in the regulation of this response, such as those that encode transcription factors and kinases, are conserved between species and display low cell-to-cell variability in expression. We suggest that this expression pattern, which is observed across species and conditions, has evolved as a mechanism for fine-tuned regulation to achieve an effective but balanced response.

Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology.

Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Based on data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise.

Fitness cost of reassortment in human influenza.

Reassortment, which is the exchange of genome sequence between viruses co-infecting a host cell, plays an important role in the evolution of segmented viruses. In the human influenza virus, reassortment happens most frequently between co-existing variants within the same lineage. This process breaks genetic linkage and fitness correlations between viral genome segments, but the resulting net effect on viral fitness has remained unclear. In this paper, we determine rate and average selective effect of reassortment processes in the human influenza lineage A/H3N2. For the surface proteins hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, reassortant variants with a mean distance of at least 3 nucleotides to their parent strains get established at a rate of about 10-2 in units of the neutral point mutation rate. Our inference is based on a new method to map reassortment events from joint genealogies of multiple genome segments, which is tested by extensive simulations. We show that intra-lineage reassortment processes are, on average, under substantial negative selection that increases in strength with increasing sequence distance between the parent strains. The deleterious effects of reassortment manifest themselves in two ways: there are fewer reassortment events than expected from a null model of neutral reassortment, and reassortant strains have fewer descendants than their non-reassortant counterparts. Our results suggest that influenza evolves under ubiquitous epistasis across proteins, which produces fitness barriers against reassortment even between co-circulating strains within one lineage.

Adaptive Evolution of Gene Expression in Drosophila.

Gene expression levels are important quantitative traits that link genotypes to molecular functions and fitness. In Drosophila, population-genetic studies have revealed substantial adaptive evolution at the genomic level, but the evolutionary modes of gene expression remain controversial. Here, we present evidence that adaptation dominates the evolution of gene expression levels in flies. We show that 64% of the observed expression divergence across seven Drosophila species are adaptive changes driven by directional selection. Our results are derived from time-resolved data of gene expression divergence across a family of related species, using a probabilistic inference method for gene-specific selection. Adaptive gene expression is stronger in specific functional classes, including regulation, sensory perception, sexual behavior, and morphology. Moreover, we identify a large group of genes with sex-specific adaptation of expression, which predominantly occurs in males. Our analysis opens an avenue to map system-wide selection on molecular quantitative traits independently of their genetic basis.

Predicting evolution.

The face of evolutionary biology is changing: from reconstructing and analysing the past to predicting future evolutionary processes. Recent developments include prediction of reproducible patterns in parallel evolution experiments, forecasting the future of individual populations using data from their past, and controlled manipulation of evolutionary dynamics. Here we undertake a synthesis of central concepts for evolutionary predictions, based on examples of microbial and viral systems, cancer cell populations, and immune receptor repertoires. These systems have strikingly similar evolutionary dynamics driven by the competition of clades within a population. These dynamics are the basis for models that predict the evolution of clade frequencies, as well as broad genetic and phenotypic changes. Moreover, there are strong links between prediction and control, which are important for interventions such as vaccine or therapy design. All of these are key elements of what may become a predictive theory of evolution.

Multiple-Line Inference of Selection on Quantitative Traits.

Trait differences between species may be attributable to natural selection. However, quantifying the strength of evidence for selection acting on a particular trait is a difficult task. Here we develop a population genetics test for selection acting on a quantitative trait that is based on multiple-line crosses. We show that using multiple lines increases both the power and the scope of selection inferences. First, a test based on three or more lines detects selection with strongly increased statistical significance, and we show explicitly how the sensitivity of the test depends on the number of lines. Second, a multiple-line test can distinguish between different lineage-specific selection scenarios. Our analytical results are complemented by extensive numerical simulations. We then apply the multiple-line test to QTL data on floral character traits in plant species of the Mimulus genus and on photoperiodic traits in different maize strains, where we find a signature of lineage-specific selection not seen in two-line tests.

Dynamic BMP signaling polarized by Toll patterns the dorsoventral axis in a hemimetabolous insect.

Toll-dependent patterning of the dorsoventral axis in Drosophila represents one of the best understood gene regulatory networks. However, its evolutionary origin has remained elusive. Outside the insects Toll is not known for a patterning function, but rather for a role in pathogen defense. Here, we show that in the milkweed bug Oncopeltus fasciatus, whose lineage split from Drosophila's more than 350 million years ago, Toll is only required to polarize a dynamic BMP signaling network. A theoretical model reveals that this network has self-regulatory properties and that shallow Toll signaling gradients are sufficient to initiate axis formation. Such gradients can account for the experimentally observed twinning of insect embryos upon egg fragmentation and might have evolved from a state of uniform Toll activity associated with protecting insect eggs against pathogens.